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I have not done the whole blog thing for a while, so after great weekend it seemed like a good thing to write about.

Friday night was large. It began with after-work drinking, and eventually ending up in a the Northern Steamship where drinking continued. At one point I lost Rock Paper Scissors and ended up having to walk to the next closest bar (200m or so) to by a couple of packets of cigarettes. The confusing this about this is that I don’t smoke, and I am not sure why I was involved in the RPS in the beginning. Upon the purchase of these cigarettes, I decided for revenge I would open both packets, move a bunch of the cigarettes around, so that the package appeared to be tampered with, which technical I guess they were. When I returned to the group I handed them the packets and told the smokers that I had removed one cigarette from each packet, put it down my pants and did a little dance. Both of the smokers believed me, and tried to pick which cigarette looked like it had been removed… and then decided to smoke the packets anyway. It occurred to me that they were actually not too concerned about smoking my nether-regions, so I told them I didn’t actually put anything in my pants. In hindsight I kind of wish that I had, who knows sweaty ball-sacks may even taste good when mixed with tar and carbon monoxide and all of the other ingredients, maybe that is one of the things that Russel Crowe’s character tried in The Insider, maybe that is why he had an ethical problem in the first place.

The next step of the night was the Casino, this was great, I ended up sitting down at a hot table, and winning a lot of money, as did the American guy who was on the table at the same time. They couldn’t calm down the winnings, even when the automatic shuffler mysteriously jammed and they needed to hold us up and change out the ten of diamonds, this did not interrupt the table karma. It got to the point where we were openly mocking pit bosses with comments like “exactly how much do I need to win before I get some free drinks” (you do not actually automatically get free drinks just for gambling in New Zealand casinos), and when cashing out “if only I could get a free drink I would probably sit here for another hour and keep playing”, still no free drinks. We then had celebratory drinks with the American guy, and reminisced about how much greater Vegas is, he went to college about 3 hours away from Las Vegas so had plenty to share.

Friday night wrapped up about 3am, with a return to our place where Green Griffin, Cream Crusader and I stayed up to 5am watching Skin and Bones, good times.

Saturday morning, surprisingly not feeling too bad. Not a lot planned for the day aside from watching the Rookie v Sophomore game for the NBA’s all star Weekend. This has to be my least favourite event from the All Star weekend, however I was optimistic, given the level of talent from the past two drafts. Yet again this game turned out to be disappointment. The problem is that this game has no intensity, and there is no defence played at any stage, it is like watching 18 Vince Carters. The highlight of the game is usually when the game is over and everyone clears out and it turns into a dunk contest, and even this didn’t happen this year. Also Yi looked so out of place in the game he has no place in this game (I agree he is one of the top rookies, but he looks so out of place), almost like Yao has no place in the All Star game, the Chinese players just look like they have no idea what is going on in this game, they do realise that the game is an exhibition right? while we are on the topic of players who didn’t belong Daniel Gibson shot 11 threes and won the MVP, what is the point of this? the game is about dunks and layups, how do you have 20 three point attempts, this is not the Euro league, sure in the regular season when Lebron clears the defense and leaves you with open shots you can take the threes, but in a game with no defence to start with, why are you shooting these threes?

How does this get fixed? I have always been against the idea of a International vs USA game, only because almost 80% of the players in the league are from the states, so it is not really representative, also in an international game, an international team can beat a US team, but this is because the US team is an all star team, and the international team is actually a team, if both teams were all star teams then the US team should win comfortably. However imagine if on Friday night there was an international vs US players game, using players who were not in the actual all star game. Think of the potential teams, the only international players in this years All star game were Yao, Dirk, and Nash. So that could leave an international team including Andrea Bargnani, Andrew Bogut, Pau Gasol, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Leandro Barbosa, Loul Deng, Andrei Kirilenko, Jose Calderon, Andris Beadrins, Mehemet Okur, Hedo Turkoglu, Yi (considering you need a mix of players and positions), I am sure I am missing people too. That team should beat the next best 12 US players who were not in the All Star game, and they would all have something to prove, the international players, and the US Born All star snubs.

Then consider there are players like Dirk who played like he should not have been in the actual All Star game, there is a lot of depth in this game, and it will only get better as more players from overseas come into the league. This would also increase the international emphasis in the NBA, which David Stern clearly wants to do if he wants to have a European division (more on this), and still showcase the young players, as a lot of them would still make this game.

Speaking of this European Division idea, I think it is a great idea, both for increasing the international popularity of the game, and because of the potential size of the markets revenue wise. However adding 5 teams to the NBA will ruin the league, so you would need to move 5 teams. If you moved New Orleans, Memphis, Seattle (OK City), New Jersey, Mikwaukee to London, Paris, Madrid, Amsederam, and either Berlin, it would be fantastic. Also you would need to move a team to Vegas to balance out the East having Amsterdam in their conference, so move the Kings out there. Travel will be a factor, but not much of a factor, it is not like these teams are flying on commercial airlines. The NBA wouldn’t need as many minor leagues if they had teams in Europe, there would be way less need for totally inferior leagues like the ABA, CBA, WNBA and the D League. When Europe already has an inferior league.

That evening White Warrior and I want to the first Waikato game of the Super 14, an always good local derby against Auckland at Eden park. It was a good time, unfortunately for Waikato it was too early in the season, so there were not many Waikato fans there, because it is February and it is hard to get into the mood for Rugby season. There was a good Auckland crowd, surprising because generally Aucklanders don’t show up for things. Overall I thought it was much closer than the final score showed, however I have been told that it did not look good on TV for Waikato. We snuck out of the stadium 10 minutes early to avoid the abuse from Auckland fans, and to beat traffic (I cannot figure out how that stadium is going to host World Cup games, it is going to be an embarrassment for New Zealand).

On a related note, I am now ready for Rugby season. Last week I thought it was too soon, and still summer, but now that I have been to a game, and watched about 3 more I am ready to get into this. I went into the season thinking that Auckland and Canterbury would be New Zealands best teams with Waikato not far out in Third. I still think this, because Wellington clearly will not be good, and Otago will win a game somewhere, just hard to see where.

Later that evening was Blue Streaks Birthday at the Ivory Lounge (there was a dinner first, but I was at the game). It was fun if uneventful, just drinking, which is always fun. After the bar closed we all returned to our place for more drinking, the problem was we only had spirits, and had no mixers. The solution was Green Griffin who produced a case of Red Bull, and we drank Vodka and Whiskey and Red Bull, going through about 13 bottles between not many of us (while watching Skin and Bones… once again good times). Unbelievably I was able to sleep when it came to that hours later.

Sunday was uneventful, aside from the NBA Saturday. Again it is an overrated night, but always fun to see NBA players wearing their suits, and their reactions to what is happening. It was fun to see Deron Williams and Chris Paul take the skills challenge seriously, and their rivalry. It was fun to see the 3 point shoot out, and see Chris Bosh look legitimately excited to see Jason Kapono, I was surprised that he even knew who he was and that he was paying attention to the event, do you think they hang out? does Chris Bosh have to hang out with with Jason Kapono because there are no other Black people in Toronto?

Finally the Slam Dunk contest. Normally I think that the Slam Dunk contest is a little overrated, but this year, with Rudy Gay asking for dunks on You Tube, Dwight Howard not getting respect last year, Gerald Green returning from last years great performance, and Jamario Moon playing this whole year trying to prove he should have been in the NBA all along. I thought Moon’s first dunk was awesome, and Rudy Gay’s Dunk throwing the ball off the back support was great and underrated, but Green and Howard took it to another level, If there were scores in the second round, Howard could have scored 200, they were all amazing, original, and fun. Greens shoeless dunk was great, as was the Birthday Cake dunk. It was the greatest Dunk contest ever.

The weekend finished watching Crank on Sky. Now I don’t want to say that the overall quality of movies has decreased over the years, but Sunday night used to be a night where there would be a decent movie on. Crank is a terrible movie. Jason Statham who was once a good actor, and was in great movies, Lock Stock and Snatch, is now reduced to making movies like this and The Transporter II. Even though the Transporter should never have been made, the Transporter II is even worse, it also has the biggest stretch in movie history. At one stage there is a bomb on the bottom of his car, the solution is the jump the car flipping it over under a crane, so the bomb gets hooked on the hook of the crane, and unhooks the bomb, while the car continues to rotate landing on its wheels, and driving away… If there is ever a Transporter III  I may have to kill someone.

Now all I have to look forward to is next weekends Boat Trip… wait that will be awesome.

It has been a while between Beer Tuesday events, but there are a couple coming up in the next couple of weeks.

Scarlet Avengers Birthday/Green Griffin flat warming – Saturday 10 November, Auckland.

The collective age and size of the Auckland chapter is increasing, and to celebrate this event we are getting drunk.

Beer Tuesday and Friends Christmas Party – Saturday 15 December, Hamilton

Christmas has arrived again, and to celebrate this event we are getting drunk. We are also attending the Waikato Times Gold Cup Races in Hamilton, which will be a great day in the sun for drinking and gambling.

Stay tuned for post event write-ups,

Look, there are many reasons why I fail with the ladies. However after an encounter on a recent Friday night it became abundantly clear why I fail so miserably with the ladies.

The problem clearly stems from my love of alcohol. With less alcohol in my body I actually become capable of holding regular conversations with people, talking about general things, however with just the smallest amount of alcohol (6 hours of heavy drinking) I become a blithering idiot (actually I was a blithering idiot well before the 6 hour mark, however this was the stage that I had this unfruitful encounter).

I was outside the bar sitting next to a mate, feeling rather intoxicated, and nearing the point that I was about to forcefully remove myself from the bar for my own safety. At this point a conversation sparks up between my mate, and the girl next to him, I look up and realise that she has an equally attractive friend, and decide that it is time to display my sparkling whit and charm, and approach this girl.

Anyway on to my short comings in this situation, the approach went well, I actually made her laugh a couple of times, and from then it was straight into a conversation, shortly into the conversation I began into a story about something which happened during my day. This story could have probably been summarised in a short paragraph, however you know you are not on good form when your story is reaching the five minute mark, it is clearly making no sense, partly because of my level of inebriation, and partly due to the overall irrelevance of the story in the first place. The other thing I realised about three minutes into the story is that was that the story not only was going nowhere, but it was actually a really boring story, and I was boring myself.

I actually survived the boring story incident, and things were still looking good, (well that was my drunken self assessment of how things were going, she was probably looking for anyway out of the conversation). However the longer the conversation went, the more the conversation started to focus on her, and my real weakness with the ladies was exposed. I tend to get bored when I am not the centre of attention, this is why I develop a reputation for insulting otherwise nice females. I of course didn’t realise this was the reason until this moment. Any other time I would have got bored and started making fun of this girl to see what happens, however on this occasion I was able to show some restraint, however I was quickly becoming bored, and now looking for my own way out of this conversation.

It was about this stage that I realised that I really couldn’t be bothered putting in the required effort to attempt to fully pick this girl up, and realised that my own laziness was actually another weakness in any attempt to pick up a woman. I realised in this case, it was going to take a while to close this deal, and despite her attractiveness (keeping in mind I was rather drunk at this point), I really couldn’t have been bothered with anything less than a sure thing, and given my earlier problems this was anything but a sure thing…

… so I guess I got something out of this overall embarrassing situation in the end, and possibly learned a lesson.

Well it is now Week 8, and the Rugby World Cup is boring me to death. So it is good to get a chance to make my weekly NPC picks.

The only problem was, that I spent so much of last weekend drinking, and so little of it watching sport (aside from the RWC). So I didnt get a chance to even see any of the Air New Zealand Cup results, or get a chance to see who is on form playing well and who struggled.

This makes picking and gambling on this weeks games a far more difficult prospect.

Although I can still point out some things from a statistical standpoint.

Last week the home team covered in every game. However favourites were only 3-3 against the spread. Overall against the spread there is no difference between home and away, and there is only a slight advantage to the home team in terms of overall record 26-20-3.

Overall Favourites are 25-20 against the spread. However in general they are 33-9-3 overall, so there have been fairly few genuine upsets this year.

Before I get to my picks I want to point out a couple of things about the Rugby World Cup. Either get rid of the crap teams, or get teams the good teams to send a third rate team over to play these shit teams. The risk of injury is way too great for these teams to be playing the likes of Georgia, Romania, Namibia, Portugal, Japan, the Island Nations, USA, Canada, and if they did not play in the 6 Nations then Italy should be gone too.

This is not a sport like Cricket, where I think the lesser teams should get a chance to compete with the main teams (despite the fact I don’t like the blowout factor), I do enjoy the fact that these teams play their way into the competition and get a chance to take on the world.

Rugby is a physical sport, playing teams of this nature increases the risk of injury for the main teams, which could potentially effect the outcome of games at the important stage of the competition. It is also likely that these team are not physically capable to compete with the likes of the All Blacks, this is just dangerous, someone could seriously get injured. Think of boxing, there will never be an amateur Middleweight fight against a professional Heavyweight, because there will never a boxing association which would allow anything this dangerous, secondly boxing is all about money, and they could probably not market this fight, therefore they would not allow it to happen. So this weekend I urge you to turn off your TV’s, do not watch a powerhouse crush a minnow, if they realise they cannot make money off these games there would be no reason for them to be on, and these teams would not be in this competition. Either that or wait until Jerry Collins paralyses a poor chap from Portugal this weekend… that is bound to get rid of these teams.

The other thing I dont like about these games is the blow outs, they are boring. I dont want to see a team get beaten by 50 points or more. It is boring, I want the close games, or at least competitive games. It is embarassing supporting a team willing to put 90 points on another team, I dont want to support that kind of boring game, nor do I want to be associated with that kind of poor sportsman ship, or bulling tactics.

Canterbury @ Taranaki

The Naik have won to straight. Canterbury have won 7 straight. They will be favoured, but with the 23.5 points Taranaki are probably a good option. Canterbury have covered in every game this year, so they have got to not cover some time.

The Pick: Canterbury -23.5

Northland @ Hawkes Bay

Since when have Northland been good enough to only get 3.5 points on the road against a team which is proven to fight above its weight grade this year. Surely the home field advantage has to make Hawkes bay 5 point favourites. Does that mean that the TAB think that Northland are actually the better team?

The Pick: Hawkes Bay -3.5

Wellington @ Waikato

I hate it when the TAB gets no balls and doesn’t give any points to either team. I can only figure that the TAB likes Wellington, but gives Waikato stadium the respect it deserves, and that evens things out. I think over the past couple of weeks Waikato has taken a step backwards, and Wellington has improved. However we know that Wellington is not great on the road. I could never on principle go against Waikato in a straight out pick. Also I love to see Wellington lose because it gives us a lot of a chance to give Purple Punga shit. I also think back to the last time these two teams played in Hamilton… hmm what was the result of that game again? I cant remember exactly what that game was for? do you remember Punga?

The Pick: Waikato

Counties @ Manawatu

This is my pick for game most likely to end in a draw. I was thinking that Manawatu would be slightly favoured because of the home field advantage. However 6.5 points is too high, ever against Counties. The thing that seals it was how bad counties has been on the road.

The Pick: Manawatu -6.5

Tasman @ Auckland

There are a lot of points to overcome, however I gotta like Auckland at home. The ground should be dry, and the Auckland team should look to run in an abundance of tries.

The Pick: 26.5

North Harbour @ Otago

I hate both of these teams. I really really don’t trust either of them to perform as well as they should. Neither one should ever be favoured by more than 5 points, because I wouldn’t expect them to play competently enough to beat the Hillcrest High 1st XV, by more than 5 points at this point. Sure they would be better on paper, and should dominate every aspect of the game, but both of these teams have the ability to underwhelm opposition. They can win a game and look like half the team is intentionally trying to throw the game. I have never seen a team attempt to shave points when they are not favoured, or when they are losing. Both of these teams play like they are trying to screw over every gambler with random inconsistency and somewhat intentional looking incompetency. Even saying that I expected Harbour to be favoured… I cannot figure out either of these teams

Southland @ BOP

I really don’t trust the bay this year. I think Southland at this point in the season are better. However I also don’t like seeing a team favoured by more than a try in a game where It really could go either way. I think the TAB has set this line perfectly, and setting it at a level which will tempt gamblers either way. My gut loves Southland , I often feel that as a gambler the gut is important. I am torn though because my head says home ground, and points are the big factor here.

The Pick: Southland – 7.5 

The Pick: North Harbour +4.5

Don’t want to discuss the shield match last week.

No time to discuss all of the games or the NPC in detail.

Just know that week 6 was one of the weirdest weeks of gambling I can recall in a long time. Only one home team won (North Harbour), Only Two Favourites won and covered. Four underdogs (including Canterbury which was not favoured) won outright.

I went 2-5, and Waikato lost, so I was not happy. Hopefully I can do better this week. I hope the same thing for Waikato.

So I will just get to the picks.

Counties @ Southland

The Pick: Counties +14.5

Hawkes Bay@ Canterbury

The Pick: Hawkes Bay +28.5

BOP @ Taranaki

The Pick: Taranaki -6.5

Waikato @ Tasman

The Pick: Waikato -22.5

Auckland @ Northland

The Pick: Auckland -23.5

North Harbour @ Wellington

The Pick: Wellington -15.5

Otago @ Manawatu

The Pick: Otago -10.5

Last Week 2-5

Overall 22-20

First of all, I have to mention the new Ranfurly Shield holders, Waikato. What more can be said other than it was a fantastic display, and a fantastic outcome. I really expected a little more backbone, from North Harbour, but what can I say, it was one of the most fantastic live sporting events I have ever witnessed, a great crowd which traveled north, and the great new shield holders Waikato.

I decided for this week, I would recreate the Air New Zealand Points table, however count the wins and losses and covers and not covers. Without giving bonus points for a close loss, because with a spread all games should be close, however still one for four tries. What would the table look like? Well I will show you.

Cvrs -Losses – 4T – Points -Act Pos

Canterbury 5-0-4-24-1

Auckland 4-1-4-20-2

Hawkes Bay 4 -1-3-19-3

Northland 4 -1-0-16-7

Waikato 3 – 2- 3- 15- 4

Tasman 3 – 2- 0- 12- 8

Southland 3 – 2- 0- 12- 10

Manawatu 2 – 3- 1 9- 12

Taranaki 2 – 3- 0- 8- 11

Otago 2 – 3- 0- 8- 6

Wellington 1 – 4- 3- 7- 5

Counties 1 – 4- 0- 4- 14

North Harbour 0 – 5- 0- 0- 9

BOP 0 – 5- 0- 0- 13

Well that shakes things up a bit, now on to this weeks picks

Auckland @ Hawkes Bay

Hawkes Bay are emerging as the giant killers of the competition, so it would be best to ride them when they are still hot. Both teams are hot, HB is at home, and they have the points.

The Pick: Hawkes Bay +14.5

Wellington @ Counties

Wellington have played well against bad teams this season. They have not played well on the road. They should win the game, particularly after what Counties did last week.

The Pick: Wellington -18.5

Southland @ Otago

Otago are getting better as the weeks go on, they are starting to win, but not looking convincing. They should win at home this week, but they will get a tough match from a Southland team which is also improving over the season.

The Pick:Otago -4.5

Bay of Plenty @ Tasman

Tasman are another team which is looking good. It is about time that BOP had a win, but will they get it on the road, will they get it against a good Tasman team. They are still looking for their first cover of the season.

The Pick: Tasman -9.5

Taranaki @ Northland

I get the impression these teams are heading in opposite directions, however it is hard to tell. Taranaki should be favoured, but it is going to be difficult to know if they will win.

The Pick: Taranaki +4.5

Canterbury @ Waikato

Going into last week I thought that Waikato would win, but expected it to be close and them to narrowly take the shield. They Smashed Harbour. Going into last week, I expected that they would do their best this week, and ultimately lose in a close game to the Canterbury Sheep Shaggers. After that display on Saturday Waikato looked like the top team everyone expected. Waikato have home ground advantage (which is what helped them against North Harbour). They have the adrenaline of winning the shield, and now defending it. They will want to win this game. I also think back to the Super 14 when a Waikato team, played a Canterbury team, in Canterbury, both teams with All Blacks, and Waikato came out on top… that was months ago, and this is a different comp, but I believe that they can do it again.

The Pick: Appears to be no spread – Waikato

Manawatu @ North Harbour

Can the Harbour boys redeem them selves. They have a cupcake to help warm them up for the second half of the comp, will that help.

The Pick: North Harbour -9.5

Last week: 5-2 Overall: 20-15

Once again this is my opinion of how things are stacking up in the 2007 Air New Zealand Cup. This is the first time this has been done for a couple of weeks so there has been some changes. I have split this into zones for ease of reference.

The Upper Tier - The teams who are playing as the elite of this competition.

1. Canterbury 4-0 (unchanged)

Once again they look to be the form team in the competition. They have been challenged for only 2 halves in the 4 games they have played to date. They will be looking forward to the shield challenge against Waikato in 2 weeks time.

2. Auckland 4-0 (unchanged)

Auckland have also looked good. They have only played one top team in Waikato, and really looked good playing a full 80 minutes, and finishing victorious.

No mans land - These teams are not elite yet the year, but they are definitely above the rest of the competition.

3. Hawkes Bay 3-1 (up 2)

They lost a couple of weeks ago to Tasman, but they have still beaten Wellington and Harbour which are quality victories. I am not sure if they are for real, or if they will keep this up, but at this stage they deserve this 3rd position.

4. Waikato 3- 1 (down 1)

All three victories have come against lowly opposition, and the ones against Southland and Counties, were probably less convincing than expected. On this list they are rated 2 spots below Auckland, and they did bounce back with a win after the loss to Auckland, but I am not sure if they are really as good as only two spots below Auckland, then again there is no one better.

This weekend will be a good test, playing away against a team they are better than on paper. The shield and road add extra pressure, which should mean a tight challenge. I expect to see Waikato win this game and take the shield back to Hamilton.

Middle of the Road - The dreaded zone, no real momentum, no real power, you get the feeling these teams can go either way.

5. Northland 2-1-1 (up 6)

The biggest gain on the list, but not the biggest surprise of the season. It was tough to put them ahead of Wellington. They are above Wellington because their best victory (Tasman) was better than Wellington’s best victory (Otago). They also had a draw with Harbour, and now have won 2 straight, where Wellington lost their last game, so I think they deserve this spot in the rankings.

6. Wellington 2-2 (down 2)

This position goes to show that Otago must be really bad.

7. Tasman 2-2 (up 1)

Have they really been playing better, or is it just that there are so many middle of the road teams that it is hard to determine who is worse? They have moved up a spot, however they really let themselves down against Northland. It was difficult to pick between them and Otago, however the overall quality of the victories, and competitive losses give them the nod over Otago in these rankings. Who would win if these teams were to play? that would probably depend on the location of the game. I also wouldn’t expect them to beat Wellington, even at home.

8. Otago 2-2 (up 2)

They beat Northland and Taranaki, but lost heavily to Canterbutry and Wellington. So after 4 weeks they have won the games they should have, and lost the ones they would have expected to loose. However none of that makes you feel like they have any real power. They are probably not as bad as this, but there is not much to show it yet.

9. North Harbour 1-1-2 (down 3)

Another team which is hard to judge. They have only won one game, they have only played at home once, they have only lost one game. The loss was to a surprisingly good team in Hawkes Bay, their win was close, but a game which needed to be won to keep the shield. They drew to a Northland team which is better than expected early, and the other draw was to counties, it was on the road, but they should have won that game.

This is the big test, a game where they will be the underdogs, however will have the advantage of home field and defending the shield, so they probably would thing they can win this game.

The Bottom Tier – Teams who should only hope to be competitive and grow to the middle ground. I wanted to put the Naki in the middle ground, but then considered the facts and…

10. Manawatu 1-3 (up 2)

Their one win (last week at Bay of Plenty), was enough to move them up two spots? This makes no sense, but unfortunately it appears to be true. They played with guts in their three losses, but this going to be a long year, at the start of the season you may have expected them to be 0-4, so they should be happy to be here.

11. Taranaki 1-3 (down 4)

Losers of three straight. This is causing their demise. They have not really played a good team yet, and have played three games at home. Good thing we have this great competition where there are so many flawed teams. I think their position only proves my point, there is about six to many teams in this competition.

12. Southland 1-3 (up 2)

Not a good team, their one win was against the Naki, and have lost to 3 of the top 4 teams, so maybe like Otago they will climb this list, but for the moment, they are not looking good.

13. Counties 0-3-1 (unchanged)

Not much to say, at least they are consistently bad.

14. Bay of Plenty 0-4 (down 5)

The biggest losers in these rankings. They have lost 4 straight, and 2 against teams they would have expected to beat. They looked good against the top two teams, and looked horrible against the other two teams. They are not good, and very disappointing.

What has been happening in the Air NZ Cup to date?

Last week was the week of the home favourite, going 3-0 and covering all games. Home teams dominated 5-2, with 4-1 covering.

On the year favourites are now 14-11 against the spread, however when it comes to winning outright they are 18-5-2. Favourites at home have dominated 13-2, however are only 9-6 against the spread. Away favourites are not great overall going 5-3-2.

So what does this mean, against the spread home teams and favourites have the advantage, however a home favourite while having an advantage does not appear to dominate as you might expect. This week at least four of the games will be home underdogs, so possibly expect three of these teams to cover.

Three teams are undefeated against the spread (Canterbury, Auckland and Northland), while three teams are looking for their first cover (Otago, BOP and North Harbour). The Bay and Harbour are playing this week, Harbour could also get their first cover.

Week 5 Picks

Hawkes Bay @ Counties

This is a trap game for the Bay, they are really starting to look good and gain some momentum. They are travelling to a team which does not have much to lose, but will want to put up a good performance. At the start of the year most people would have thought that HB was a slightly better team, now people probably rate them much higher, but what has changed? I think that HB will take this out, and 3.5 is not enough to take Counties.

The Pick:Hawkes Bay -3.5

Taranaki @ Auckland

Auckland should send the Naki to their forth straight loss, and should be heavy favourites in the game. A few days without rain in Auckland could make this high scoring, however depending on the spread rain could help the Naki.

The Pick: Tarankai +28.5

Northland @ Southland

The classic North South battle as the two teams from the furthest away play in week 5. Southland has been bad, Northland has a good record, but probably isn’t great. Should be a big test for both teams, therefore this is this weeks pick of game most likely to end in a draw. Northland should be favoured, this will be interesting when the spread comes out.

The Pick: Southland -2.5
Otago @ BOP

I could copy the above paragraph and put most of it here. Otago will be favoured and will most likely win, but the spread will be interesting. BOP could win their first at home. I expected this spread to be double figures, BOP have not showed anything yet to make me pick them.

The Pick: Otago -3.5

Tasman @ Wellington

Wellington have won both home games, lost both games away. Wellington are 1-3 against the spread and have not covered in three weeks. They will probably be heavily favoured at home, and should win. The cover will be difficult.

The Pick:Wellington -15.5

Waikato @ Harbour

This is the most important game of the week, and probably the most important game of the season for both of these teams. Most people think Waikato will take the shield. I have convinced myself they will. Beer Tuesday will be represented at this game with Box, Silver Sovereign, Neon Knight and myself going to cheer on the boys as they take home the shield. The cover will be difficult for Waikato, expect a close game. There is no way I would bet on this, there is too much at stake.

The Pick: Harbour +12.5

Manawatu @ Canterbury

Canterbury should be 5-0 after this week, but will the be 5-0 against the spread. This will all depend on the spread which is set. It will be high, but Manawatu has also covered against a high spread on the road in Wellington. This game would not be interesting, however with a good spread this could be a good challenge and interesting for the betting person.

The Pick:Canterbery -29.5

Not completely happy with these picks, I think I have taken too many favourites, hopefully it will work out.

Last week 5-2 Overall 15-13 Back above .500.

No mucking around this week, straight on to the picks.

Tasman @ Northland

I swear I made this pick before the game. As evidence I bet on it. Is it time for me to stop writing off Northland, and actually pick them? Nup, I am sure Tasman is better than Northland, and should be favoured. They aren’t, and I am taking them.

The Pick: Tasman +5.5

North Harbour @ Hawkes Bay

This is the potential draw of the week. I think that North Harbour and slightly better on paper. However HB has played well, particularly in their one home game. The weather will keep things close, and North Harbour has always had two draws. There is no draws when picking with the spread, so I will have to make a choice. Looks like the TAB is not going for a spread for this game, which makes it harder to choose, I was expecting to get a few points either way to help out one team.

The Pick: Hawkes Bay

Counties @ Waikato

Waikato will win this game. Will they win by enough. I hate Auckland and everything those sons of bitches stand for… bitter? we will see when it matters in the finals. I wouldn’t want to bet on this game, Counties is improving, Waikato is at home, the ground will be wet, but will there be rain and wind. Waikato failed to cover in there only other home game and is 1-2 against the spread this season.

The Pick: Counties +21.5

Auckalnd @ Southland

Auckland are good, they beat the defending champs so they must be. Southland are bad, but got lucky last week and decided to show up for the first time this year, and beat a Taranaki team that didnt show up. Southland have already been embarassed at home this year. They will not want that to happen again, especially against an Auckalnd team.

The Pick: Auckland – 18.5

Otago @ Taranaki

If Taranaki play like they did last week, they will not win this game. Who really knows which of these teams is better, and who really cares. I guess I have to make a pick.

The Pick: Looks like no Spread – Otago

Wellington @ Canterbury

Canterbury are really good (second best team at the moment), and playing at home. I am a bit unsure about Wellington, particularly on the road.

The Pick: Canterbury -6.5

BOP @ Manawatu

Time for BOP to renew my faith. They still haven’t won yet. Manawatu fight hard each week. This time they are at home. Hard game to pick.

The Pick: Manawatu +7.5

These things are always funny, and people seem to enjoy looking at motivational posters. These are all made from Beer Tuesday members, these and more on our photos page.

I have spent the first couple of days of this week trying to work out who is good, and who is not this year in the Air New Zealand Cup. So I decided that the way to do this would be with some “Power Rankings”, to try to rank the teams top to bottom.

NPC Week 2 Power Rankings

1. Canterbury – Not yet challenged in the first two games, they will not be this week against Otago either.

2. Auckland – Their Victories over the same teams as Canterbury have not been as impressive. Look for the tough game home to Waikato, and possible slide down these standings.

3. Waikato – None of the top 3 teams have played a good team yet. Waikato struggled against Southland, but this was mainly rain related. Stephen Donald has been absolutely fantastic in the first 2 games, and my personal Beaver Man Crush is reaching Kobeesk proportions.

4. Wellington – Dropping following the loss to Hawkes Bay.

5. Hawkes Bay – Sometimes it is better to be lucky, than good. Sure they beat Wellington 15 on 15, but you can’t help feel they had the advantage of knocking out (literally) an All Black, and not having to play the remainder of the game with 14 men, that was lucky. At this stage I don’t even think they are better than BOP, but time will tell.

6. North Harbour – They were lucky to get a draw on the road week 1, defended the shield well week 2. They have a couple of weeks to improve before the big shield challenge against Waikato.

7. Tarnaki – Beat Tasman, and had a close shield challenge. The Naki is always tough to beat, they will probably climb this list in weeks to come.

8. Tasman – Looked good week 1 in Taranaki, fought hard for a close loss. Dominated Manawatu week 2. Home to Hawkes Bay week 3. I feel an upset on the cards.

9. BOP – They are 0-2 and rated ahead of 2 teams which are higher on the table. They have played hard against the two top teams. The losses look bad on the scorecard, but they fought hard and were in the game until the middle of the second half. I think they are probably better than Hawkes Bay, and Tasman, just not more powerful at this stage.

10. Otago – This would be an improvement on last week (if I had done a list), but after getting thrashed at Wellington, and then only just beating Northland (and pissing me off in the process, more on this soon), they are simply not that good.

11. Northland – Lucky week 1 draw. Close loss week 2. But were either of those games against a good team… doubtful.

12. Manawatu – They played hard at home week 1. Got demolished on the road in week 2, this doesn’t leave them in a strong position.

13. Counties – Hammered in the first two games. They have played two tough teams, but they still need to improve.

14. Southland – Looked terrible in their two games so far, they are going to have a long season. Does not get easier against the Naki this week.

Other Notes

I am 0-4 against the spread on Friday night games, however last Friday I cant help buy feeling a little ripped off. BOP was covering at home against Auckland, until they fell apart in the last 15 minutes and blew the cover. At this stage I flick the channel and see that Otago is leading by 10 against Northland, and taking me to Covertown. Then they stuff up a lineout, and allow a soft try under the posts. I assure myself this is fine, and Otago proceeds down the feild to camp out on the Northland goal line, I feel the try for the cover coming. They are attacking the line for a good 5 minutes, Northland is about to cave, as the 80 minutes come up on the clock. I know I am fine because every New Zealand rugby team in the history of the universe has kept attacking in this situation, they just want to run up the score, make themselves look better, and damage the opposition. Otago decides to kick the ball out, how could they do this to me?

Against the spread this week was the reverse of the week before. Overall on the season home and away are both 7-7 against the spread. Favourites are 8-6 against the spread, making this fairly close overall. Overall Home favourites are 8-1, so if you are betting straight up take the home favourite, however home favourites and Away Favourites are only 1 game over .500 at 5-4 and 3-2 respectively. What does this mean? when it comes to winning outright, take the home team, and the favourite where possible, if you are betting with the spread it remains hard to pick, which I guess is the point.

On to the Week 3 Picks

Northland @ BOP

Both teams looking for their first win. BOP at home. TAB no spread, I predict a draw, that would be no fun of me, so having to take one or the other, I will refer to my own rankings and go with.

The Pick: BOP

North Harbour @ Counties

When I was trying to pick this spread, I thought it would be 22.5. The actual spread 15.5. What the hell, how  was I out by 7 points, that is a converted try. Sure North Harbour are not great, but counties are far worse. On paper this looks like easy money, maybe this game is this weeks Hawkes Bay, buyer beware.

The Pick: North Harbour -15.5

Hawkes Bay @ Tasman

After last week I expected HB to be bigger favourites, so I don’t know what to think on this one. I think Tasman could win outright, but a few more points here would have made this an easier choice.

The Pick: Tasman +4.5

Manawatu @ Wellington

Hard to know which Wellinton team is going to show up in Manawatu. A couple of weeks back Waikato was only favoured by 25 (ish) points against this Manawatu team in Manawatu. Is this Wellington team really 10 points better than Waikato? You also know that Wellington has something to prove after last week, so maybe 36.5 is fair. However a home team with a lot of points against a rival.

The Pick: Manawatu

Waikato @ Auckland

I figured that Auckland would be favoured but didn’t see them giving 6.5. I like Waikato’s chance to win this outright, so would be happy to see them cover. Winner of this game probably gets to top the power rankings if I did them again next week.

The Pick: Waikato + 6.5

Canterbury @ Otago

The Third rivalry game of the week.  Otago is very bad, and they will look worse when they receive a pounding at the hands of Canterbury this week. Not enough points for the Otagoians (?).

The Pick: Canterbury -20.5

Southland @ Taranaki

Another spread I failed to pick by more than a try. I really thought that the spread would be closer to 15 or 16. This seems to be an easy game to pick too, but surely Southland have to turn it around at some stage.

The Pick: Taranaki -8.5